Measuring the effect

Did an agent improve because its examples were more useful, or because it got more labels or easier tests? A fair comparison separates these possibilities.

Count every test episode

An agent may finish before the scheduled action change. Excluding it would remove a success and leave the methods with different test cases. Intention-to-treat scoring counts every assigned episode, whether the change happens or not.

Check this with a simulation

The true simulated difference is . Counting all episodes gives bias ; counting only changed episodes gives . Bias measures average overestimation or underestimation.

Distributions of intention-to-treat and delivered-only estimates against the known effect.
Estimates from repeated simulated experiments. The line marks the true difference.

Match both labels and practice

Match the label count and the amount of training. Otherwise, a gain could reflect more supervision or more practice, rather than better-chosen situations.

What happened with twice the labels?

Doubling the budget to recovery labels gave success, versus before. One run cannot establish a benefit.

Matched extra-demonstration and recovery results beside a recovery run with twice the budget.
Comparing demonstrations with twice as many recovery labels mixes two questions: which examples help, and how many are needed?

Give both methods the same starting point

Training varies between runs. A paired comparison starts both methods from the same network and tests them on the same mazes. Comparing their success within each run removes some shared variation.

Why pairing can give a clearer answer

In this six-run simulation, pairing detects a five-point effect in of experiments, versus without pairing. This depends on the simulation’s assumptions.

Distributions of interval width for paired and unpaired analyses.
Pairing gives narrower intervals here, meaning more precise estimates.

Choose the test before seeing the answer

Choose the scenarios, scoring rules, and useful-effect threshold before seeing the results. A file fingerprint, or hash, lets us detect later edits to those rules. Try changing a value below.

Continue to the study

The study combines these choices: equal budgets and training, paired runs, and a test fixed in advance.